Towards Net Zero: Delivering the Forestry Stabilization Wedge
Abstract:
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the role of forests in climate change mitigation, applying Socolow and Pacala’s Stabilization Wedges framework and the Global Carbon Budget to underscore the importance of forests in broader climate stabilization strategies. Forests cover approximately 30% of the Earth's land area, but due to land use changes, deforestation today accounts for between 12% to 20% of all carbon emissions globally. This study explores recent gains in global forest conservation, while emphasizing the challenges of deforestation, and finds that international and national efforts to curb deforestation and promote reforestation are yielding positive results. The drivers of deforestation are explored, such as land-use changes for palm oil and soy plantations, which have led to deforestation and increased greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, this paper considers the role of various stakeholders, particularly forest owners vulnerable to climate risks and forest fires. It highlights regional case studies like China’s 'Grain for Green' program as successful models for balancing economic and ecological goals. Using McKinsey's Three Horizons framework, the paper then outlines immediate actions, transitional strategies, and long-term actions to deliver a forestry wedge, focusing on sustainable forest management and technological innovations for large-scale reforestation.
