Risk factors and incidence rate of long covid-19. A longitudinal study in general medicine from March 15, 2020 to October 31, 2022, in Toledo, Spain
Abstract:
Background: Long covid-19 is a recognizable health problem, but its precise clinical-epidemiological contours remain the subject of debate.
Objectives: To estimate the incidence rate and the risk and protective factors of Long covid-19 in general practitioner consultation.
Methodology: An observational, longitudinal and prospective study of patients with Long covid-19 in a general practice setting in Toledo, Spain, from March 15, 2020 to October 31, 2022.
Results: 687 positive cases of acute covid-19 were diagnosed in the general medicine consultation under study. Of these, 27 cases (48% were women and 26% were >=65 years old) evolved into Long covid-19, which represents a gross incidence rate of 4%. The incidence rate of Long covid-19 in the general practitioner consultation with respect to the total population attended in that consultation (N= 2,000) from March 15, 2020 to October 31, 2022 was 1.35%. The only statistically significant risk factors for Long covid-19 were having presented moderate-severe severity of primary infection (RR= 4.67 (95% CI: 2.08, 10.5); Strong risk; Fisher exact test= 0.0007) and present chronic diseases of the Nervous and Senses groups (RR= 1.89 (1.04, 3.44); Moderate risk; X2= 5.2542. p= .021894).
Conclusion: The incidence rate of Long covid-19 is moderately high (4% of acute covid-19 cases and 1.35% of the general population) and having presented moderate-severe severity of primary infection is the main risk factor for developing it, and to a lesser degree the comorbidity of the Nervous and Senses groups. Although incidence figure found can be considered moderate, it is higher than the prevalence of other important chronic diseases in community. This knowledge should alert the general practitioner to manage comorbidities and risk factors in acute covid-19, and can serve to outline future health policy strategies.
