Abstract:
Transnistria remains a geopolitical flashpoint, deeply connected with Russia’s strategic interests, Moldova’s EU aspirations, and larger security concerns in Eastern Europe. This paper explores the role of Russia’s military presence, the implications of Moldova’s EU accession bid, and the potential for regional conflict. The Colbasna ammunition depot is underscored as a major security risk, while NATO’s cautious engagement is also explored. The analysis presents several conflict resolution scenarios, including diplomatic negotiations, a continued frozen conflict, or potential integration within the EU framework. Understanding these dynamic forces is crucial to as sessing the future stability of Moldova and the broader region.